Neil was so kind as to send me a link that sufficiently put a damper on my evening. American Revolution/Civil War/Great Depression 2.0 all rolled up in one come 2012. Doesn't this guy predict any good things? For pete's sake... I bet he doesn't get a lot of dinner party invites.
That's not to say I can't see where Jerry's coming from. I mean, to the majority of America, the whole collapse of our economy might have come as a surprise, but really- if you had been paying attention, the United States has been circling the shitter for quite some time now. The haves and have-nots have been getting further and further removed. While the Prius and Honda hybrids were sitting in the driveways of hippies and Nader supporters, Hummers and giant SUVs were getting pimped with personal DVD players for each and every kid. People were selling their 2,000 square foot homes because they needed more room for the second child they were expecting.
As the President-elect pointed out, instead of putting money into alternative energy, we've been throwing money in construction- bigger houses, bigger hotels, bigger buildings. Unless GM develops cars that run on oak cabinets and wall-to-wall carpeting, those were not so much great investments as they were (and are) money pits.
There's a cyclical nature to life. In most cultures, religions, societies, etc, there is some kind of circle of life- not just a Lion King circle of life, but one where things come and go, whether it's life, health, money, trends. In the mid 80s, environmentalism was huge. Saving the rain forests, recycling, endangered species- it was all the rage. Then, people got distracted. The Internet came around, and all of a sudden, people were making money, a lot of it. Technology was moving fast, and society couldn't keep up. Supply and demand went all out of whack, and the excesses that made us all fat and happy also made us lazy.
We thought ourselves infallible, and when the World Trade Center attacks occurred, it was all the more devastating because we suddenly realized that we were not invincible after all- in fact, we were terribly vulnerable. We had an enemy that we knew nothing about. It was becoming all the more difficult to concentrate on finding the new Xbox rather than what was happening around the world.
All great empires come to an end. They all fall, sooner or later. Holy Roman, Ottoman, British, and many more, have come and gone. Perhaps, in 2012, we'll see the beginning of the end of America's dominance in the world. Or not. But I don't think Gerald Celente is all that prophetic. He's just been paying attention.
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Here is my point of view. There are several points you are making, all of them correct, but would like to add a few comments.
First of all, I do not believe much to individuals that predict certain things to happen and then come out when they find out they were right. Why? The reason is simple: there are over 6 billion humans in this world. That means there are 6 billion opinions and predictions out there. Chances are someone will get one right, while the rest will be wrong. How many people predicted the world was going to cease to exist around the year 2000? And here we are still blogging.
Having said that, I have to agree that the future does not look bright for anyone in this world. As you say, this is a cycle that feeds of itself, a vicious circle.
First problem I see is that all we've been taught was wrong. Our parents told us to be professionals: our jobs being outsourced to other countries. We were told it is always safe to invest in land: sucks if you learned this in CA. We make desicions based on the past and we never look into the future.
Second, humanity swings from one extreme to another. A few months ago we were indeed driving Hummers and SUVs until we made this situation unbearable with $150 oil. Months later, inventory of hybrids and compact cars was depleted until oil drop to $40. A few weeks ago, lots of people went looking again for trucks and SUVs since gas is $1.50/gal. Do you see the pattern?
Third, you have a divided country. There is the people that believe the government has no control on this, that world economy cycles, that global warming is fake, and when asked about the current crisis, the reply with a simple "Come on! this is the USA!". Then there is the other extreme, people that suddenly sold all their cars and got a Prius, that complain when you throw away a candy wrapper instead of recycling it, that believe that we are going to hell for all the bad things we've done on earth.
Why can't we find a balance? The housing market went from one extreme to another: from multimillion dollar houses in CA to 1 dollar homes sold in Detroit (no kidding, a house really sold for a dollar in Detroit). The energy crisis went through the same: people saw our huge dependency on oil, jacked up the price. But people responded to it, part got hybrids, others cut back on driving. The world found that the oil price was too high, back to an extreme low.
In the mean time, there is two different groups of people that will experience different outcomes. The politicians, big companies, powerful investors will benefit from all swings: selling expensive oil, promoting expensive solar/wind energy, trading with high and lows with markets. Then you got the people that lose: the poor guy that needs to drive with expensive gas, the one that needs to pay taxes to fund the government incentives to install alternative energy that should have been here long time ago, the guy that lost all of their savings and 401k in the stock crash, and possibly lost their job.
Will there be riots? Possibly. Will there be a tax revolution? Maybe. But whatever happens, expect it to swing with full fury from one extreme to another.
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